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USD/INR DropsUSD/INR Higher As ECB Slashes Growth Forecast; Shares Watched

8 March 2019 / Morning Brief

Indian Rupee

  • The Indian rupee little changed at 70.17 pair now at 70.17 against 69.9950 previous close.
  • Pair to tip in 70.00-70.30 range today.
  • USD/INR opens higher after ECB downgrades growth outlook for current year, souring demand for risk assets and Asian currencies. ECB cuts growth forecast for current year to 1.1%, down from 1.7% previously, extends rate hike outlook and announces new round of long-term loans for bank. ECB now expects rates to remain at current levels “through the end of 2019” compared to “through the summer of 2019” previously. Rupee is currently being driven more by flows than by global fundamentals.

Global Currency

  • The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies .DXY was a shade lower at 97.548. The index soared 0.75 percent on Thursday to brush a near three-month peak of 97.71 and was headed for a weekly gain of 1.2 percent.
  • The euro wallowed close to a 21-month low against the dollar on Friday, hurt by a series of dovish signals from the European Central Bank, and the currency market braced for further volatility ahead of U.S. jobs data later in the day. The euro's big hit on Thursday came as the ECB pushed back the timing of its first post-crisis interest rate hike to 2020, cut its economic forecasts and launched a new round of cheap bank loans.

Global Markets

  • Oil prices fell on Friday after the European Central Bank (ECB) warned economic weakness would continue and as U.S. crude output and exports chase new records, undermining efforts by producer club OPEC to tighten global markets.
  • Gold held steady on Friday as risk appetite faded after the European Central Bank cut its growth forecasts and launched an emergency round of policy stimulus.

Global Markets at one Glance

Markets Today In INR % Change
USD/INR 70.185 70.195 0.13
EUR/USD 1.11978 78.60 0.23
GBP/USD 1.3095 91.90 0.29
USD/JPY 111.231 0.63 0.38
SEK/INR 9.4618 7.4177 0.0139
DKK/INR 6.2651 11.2025 0.0325
AUD/USD 1.4264 49.19 0.1
1M 2.49175 -0.41386  
3M 2.5945 -0.332  
6M 2.68813 -0.29929  
1Y 2.88638 -0.16514  
Index Today % Change
NIFTY 11029.55 -0.26
SENSEX 36676.7 -0.13
BANK NIFTY 27724.55 -0.14
SGX NIFTY 9347.5 0.33
NIKKEI 21456.01 -0.65
HANG SENG 28347.24 -1.5
SHANGHAI 3016.2211 -2.9
ASX200 6206.2 -0.92
DOW JONES 25473.23 -0.78
S&P500 # 2748.93 -0.81
NASDAQ # 7026.883 -1.2
Key Events of the Day
Date Time Currency Event Forecast Previous
08/03/2019 19.00 USD Building Permits (Jan) 1.289M 1.326M
8/03/2019 19.00 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) 181K 304K
8/03/2019 19.00 USD Unemployment Rate (Feb) 3.9% 4.0%

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