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India Rupee Logs Worst Month In 3 On Fiscal Woes, Oil; Budget Eyed

31 January 2019 / Evening Brief

Indian Rupee

  • The rupee settled at 71.0750 against 71.1175 at the previous close. The local unit moved in 71.85-71.19 per dollar band intra-day.
  • The Indian rupee fell for the second straight month to post its biggest monthly fall in three against the dollar, as fiscal worries and surge in crude oil prices spurred outflows from local assets. Outflows from both local shares and bond markets dragged rupee lower this month, and so far the view remains that it is likely to continue in the next month as well from the equity market ahead of elections. Globally trend of equities has improved, which boosted gains in oil prices as well spurring further outflows. Further move will be influenced by what is announced in the budget tomorrow.

Global Currency

  • The dollar extended losses against its major rivals on Thursday, plumbing three-week lows after the Federal Reserve dialed back its predictions of future rate hikes this year, amid increasing uncertainty over the global economic outlook. The Fed left interest rates on hold at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday and said it would be "patient" before making any further rate hikes, dropping its guidance that ‘further gradual’ rate rises will be needed.
  • The euro pushed higher, with EUR/USD advancing 0.23% to 1.1504 as the dovish Fed offset a sharp slowdown in German retail sales in December.

Global Markets

  • Oil prices steadied after two days of gains on Thursday, as lowerthan- expected U.S. fuel stock rises and U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan output boosted investor confidence but U.S.-China trade tensions weighed on sentiment.
  • Gold inched up on Thursday, holding near a multi-month peak after the U.S. Federal Reserve paused its monetary tightening cycle, denting the dollar and putting bullion on track for its fourth straight monthly gain.

Global Markets at one Glance

Markets at 5.00pm In INR % Change
USD/INR 71.085 71.085 -0.18
EUR/USD 1.1487 81.66 -0.13
GBP/USD 1.31339 93.30 -0.09
USD/JPY 108.635 0.65 0.22
SEK/INR 9.0275 7.8743 0.0008
DKK/INR 6.333 11.2250 0.49
AUD/USD 1.3739 -0.22
DXY 95.318 -0.02
Index Today % Change
NIFTY 10830.95 1.68
SENSEX 36256.69 1.87
NIKKEI 20773.49 1.06
HANG SENG 27942.47 1.08
SHANGHAI 2584.5724 0.35
CAC# 4987.18 0.25
FTSE # 7264.61 0.0042
DAX # 11190.98 0.08
Commodities Today % Change
GOLD # 1323.16 0.28
SILVER# 16.06 1.13
BRENT # 61.95 0.49
NYMEX # 54.2 -0.06
Today Today
OPEN 70.9500
HIGH 71.1900
LOW 70.8500
CLOSE 71.0750

Key Events of the Day

Date Time Currency Event Actual Forecast Previous
31-01-19 14.25 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jan) -2K -11K -14K

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