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Indian Rupee Falls On Weak Asian Cues, Higher Crude Oil Prices

14 December 2018 / Morning Brief

Indian Rupee

  • The Indian rupee little changed at 71.7850 pair now at 71.74 against 71.68 previous close.
  • Pair to tip in 71.55- 71.95 range today.
  • The Indian rupee fell against dollar in early trade, tracking losses in most Asian currencies as regional shares were weighed down by weak Chinese economic data. Broad weakness in the Asian assets following weak Chinese data has spilled over to the rupee, while local investors await India’s trade deficit data. Overnight gains in crude oil prices also adding pressure.

Global Currency

  • The ECB formally ended its 2.6 trillion euro crisis‐fighting bond purchase scheme on Thursday. However, monetary policy is most likely to remain accommodative as ECB president Mario Draghi warned that the euro area's growth outlook is likely to remain weak amid threats of a global trade war and the prospect of a hard Brexit.
  • The dollar firmed against most major counterparts on Friday as investor focus shifted to an expected U.S. interest rate hike next week, although gains are likely to be capped on greater uncertainty about next year's policy outlook. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, its fourth rate hike this year though greater focus will centre on the policy outlook for 2019.

Global Markets

  • Oil prices fell on Friday as investors cashed in gains of more than 2 percent made during the previous session on concerns demand may slump amid slowing economic growth, though there are still expectations for producer supply cuts to support price.
  • Gold is trading in a sideways manner around the 200‐hour MA in Asia. Risk‐off in equities and a slight drop in the treasury yields is likely helping the yellow metal defend the MA support. Gold's bullish move may have lost its mojo in the last few days, beating the 200- hour MA is still proving a tough task for the bears.

Global Markets at one Glance

Markets Today In INR % Change
USD/INR 71.705 71.715 0.26
EUR/USD 1.13603 81.46 0.22
GBP/USD 1.26314 90.57 0.06
USD/JPY 113.451 0.63 0.38
SEK/INR 9.0675 7.9079 0.0105
DKK/INR 6.4008 11.2025 0.0325
AUD/USD 1.3899 0.11
1M 2.44013 -0.41371  
3M 2.7775 -0.35586  
6M 2.89225 -0.32429  
1Y 3.10125 -0.21229  
Index Today % Change
NIFTY 10800.2 0.08
SENSEX 35958.37 0.08
BANK NIFTY 26839.5 0.09
SGX NIFTY 9347.5 0.33
NIKKEI 21816.19 0.99
HANG SENG 26159.81 -1.37
SHANGHAI 2619.0652 -0.57
ASX200 5610.1 -0.91
DOW JONES 24597.38 0.29
S&P500 # 2650.54 -0.02
NASDAQ # 6767.974 0.06
Key Events of the Day
Date Time Currency Event Forecast Previous
14-12-2018 14.00 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 51.8 51.8
14-12-2018 19.00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.2% 0.7%
14-12-2018 19.00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.1% 0.8%

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